ESTIMATION OF THE LEVEL OF EXTERNAL STATE DEBT BURDEN OF UKRAINE
The article assesses the level of external state debt burden in Ukraine and investigates the current state of external state debt. On the basis of the analysis of world experience in estimating the level of external state debt load, the external debt burden indicators of Ukraine were calculated and analyzed. It is proposed to supplement the existing domestic methodology for assessing the level of external state debt of Ukraine by new indicators of debt load, such as: the ratio of growth of public external debt to GDP growth; the ratio of the growth of the state external debt to the natural increase of the population; the ratio of the level of population savings to the state external debt; public external debt per person; the ratio of the growth of the state external debt to the growth of accumulation of fixed capital, which will allow more efficiently to carry out a diagnosis of the ability to timely fulfill Ukraine's financial obligations. It is highlighted that the main threatening tendencies of Ukraine's external debt are: rapid growth of external public debt; an increase in the debt burden on the economy, whose indicators begin to exceed the threshold; significant reduction of official international reserves; the insignificant use of borrowed funds for investment in the real sector of the economy due to the low profitability of state-owned enterprises makes large-scale bank investment loans and intensive capital injections into the domestic banking sector impossible, and therefore private and state corporations are forced to attract external loans; the potential of domestic savings as a source of investment, at the moment is not enough to at least partially replace external sources of borrowing; the deterioration of Ukraine's credit rating to the level at which capital investments into Ukraine are speculative, there is a high risk of non-repayment of loans, which for the country means limiting access to credit and rising prices for loans due to rising risks.
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Keywords: public debt; public external debt; debt load; debt indicators; external government debt; debt security. |
MACROECONOMICS
Źraichak Yevhenii
PhD., Industrial and Economic College of the National Aviation University
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